First Risk Olympics is a worldwide competition
for derivatives professionals. It consists of multiple choice questions
designed to test and develop risk intuition. All questions can be answered
intuitively; you don't need to be a rocket scientist to win.
You may play anonymously but we invite you to fill out the contact
details so that we can inform you of upcoming heats and send you a
response sheet.
Answer all questions. Only one answer is considered correct for each
question.
QUESTION 1 -the humble cash flow
A positive cash flow has a fixed face value. A sensitivity analysis is
performed to measure the increase in its present value from a sudden 1%
decrease in yields. The same analysis is performed on a second cash flow,
which is identical in all respects, except it has a longer duration. Assume
a flat yield curve at say, 10% semi-annual. The change in present value of
the longer term cash flow:
A. Is necessarily greater
than for the shorter term cash flow.
B. Is necessarily less
than for the shorter term cash flow.
C. May be greater or
lesser than the shorter term cash flow.
D. The present values actually
decrease, not increase.
QUESTION 2 - the age of VaR
A risk manager is presented with a Value at Risk (VaR) measure of a complex
diversified derivatives portfolio. The VaR is a single statistic intended to
express the maximum one day loss within a 99% confidence limit. The VaR
indicates the potential for loss is too high. The risk manager must
formulate directly an effective hedge or hedges to reduce the portfolio's
market risk exposure.
A. The risk manager can
do this simply by knowing the VaR.
B. The asset types, not
specific instrument details, in the portfolio must also be known.
C. The asset types, spot
and forward market rates must also be known.
D. The risk manager cannot
determine the required hedge(s) given only the
VaR, the relevant asset types
and market data.
QUESTION 3 - exposed to what?
A corporate enters into a long term FX forward to hedge a contingent liability.
The hedge may need to be closed and settled at any time. The
present value of the profit or loss on the hedge is, in general, exposed to:
A. Changes in the spot
(exchange) rate only.
B. Changes in the spot rate
and the domestic interest rate only.
C. Changes in the spot rate
and the interest rates of both currencies only.
D. Changes in the spot rate,
both interest rates as well as time lapse.
E. No market rates once a
reverse FX forward with equal face value and maturity is entered into.
QUESTION 4 - is this real?
A trader performs a stress test on an interest rate related derivatives
portfolio using uniform yield shifts with time and all other economic
parameters unchanged. The portfolio seems to profit when yields increase. It also appears to profit when yields decrease.
A. This suggests the net
delta is zero and gamma is zero or positive.
B. This suggests the stress
analysis software is defective - this result violates arbitrage theory.
C. This suggests the portfolio
will tend to gain value as time lapses.
D. This effect can occur
only if options are present in the portfolio.
QUESTION 5 - does it matter?
An exporter can use either FX futures or forwards to hedge a long dated FX
exposure. Both futures and forwards are available with expiries coinciding
with the payment date. Domestic and foreign currency interest rates exceed
10%.To achieve near risk equivalence, the face value of the futures
contracts:
A. Should be greater
than an equivalent forward contract.
B. Should be less than a
forward contract.
C. Should be the same as a
forward contract.
D. May be greater or less
than a forward, depending on which currency has the higher interest rate.
QUESTION 6 - a fundamental thing
The critical dimension, that is the fundamental unit of measure, of a simple
interest rate is:
A. A unit of the currency
of the underlying instrument (e.g. dollars of US dollar based instruments).
B. It has no dimension,
interest rates are dimensionless numbers.
C. 1/Time.
D. Time.
E. %
QUESTION 7 - the business of banking
A banker uses interest rate derivatives to manage a fixed rate mortgage
portfolio. The Bank's board views exposure management based on rate
forecasts as speculative and prohibits it. A careful stress analysis
indicates that the portfolio contains risk holes, it is exposed to yeild
curve changes. The risk manager then formulates and executes a hedge parcel
that reduces significantly market risk exposure. With less market risk the
expected or average profit to the bank:
A. Increases.
B. Decreases, but only by
the amount of the hedge parcel transaction costs.
C. Decreases significantly
since less risk means less return.
D. Stays the same.
E. May increase or decrease.
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